By Patrick Lancier
Brazil re-elected Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 25 October, with 51.79% of the vote against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro. For Brazil’s Jews, it means four more years of a president who compared Israel’s war in Gaza to the Holocaust and was declared persona non grata by Israel in 2024. Israel’s answer is an open door, and Tel Aviv is one of the places where Brazilian Jews settle.
What happened in Brazil
Lula won 64,256,232 votes to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 59,826,041, according to the Superior Electoral Court, after trailing in the first round on 4 October (45.16% against 47.03%). It is his fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro, who had promised to move Brazil’s embassy to Jerusalem, according to The Jerusalem Post, has since left for the United States, g1 reported.
A government at odds with Israel
In February 2024, Lula compared Israel’s war in Gaza, launched after the Hamas massacre of 7 October 2023, to the Holocaust, and Israel declared him persona non grata. Brazil then withdrew its ambassador, left Israel’s new ambassador without accreditation, which led Israel to downgrade relations, and in July 2026 refused Israel’s choice of consul general in São Paulo, Folha de S.Paulo reported. In September, at the UN, Lula again accused Israel’s government of “genocide”, AFP noted. Neither country now has an ambassador in the other’s capital.
An open door for Brazilian Jews
Brazil’s Jewish community numbers more than 120,000 people according to CONIB. It is welcome in Israel, whether its members come to make aliyah, buy a home or settle in Tel Aviv.
Fortunately, it is a well-organised community, but one that is preparing for four difficult years. Sergio Napchan, director general of CONIB (the Confederação Israelita do Brasil, which represents all of the country’s Jewish communities), oversees the organisation of the communities in Brazil.
The move is already familiar. About 200 immigrants arrived from Brazil between September 2025 and September 2026, according to Aliyah Ministry and Jewish Agency figures reported by Ynet. Of the 5,362 Brazilians who made aliyah between 2015 and 2025, 547 registered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, the third most common choice after Ra’anana and Jerusalem, according to Aliyah Ministry records compiled by Israel.com.
What it means for buying in Tel Aviv
The election also hit Brazilian savings. The day after the vote, the dollar jumped from 4.99 reais to 5.40 reais, and the São Paulo stock exchange fell 13.88%, BBC News Brasil reported. In plain terms, a family paying in reais for a home priced abroad now needs more of its own currency than it did a week earlier. For buyers who plan to settle in Tel Aviv, the timing of currency transfers now deserves close attention.
The outlook
Lula’s victory is legitimate and has been recognised by more than a hundred countries, according to the TSE. But Brazil starts this term without an ambassador in Israel, and analyst Evan Ellis of the CSIS expects Lula to harden his line on Israel now that he no longer faces re-election. For Brazilian Jews weighing a move, Israel’s message is simple: you are welcome.
Sources
- TSE: official results
- TSE: recognition by more than a hundred countries
- The Jerusalem Post/JTA: Lula’s re-election and Israel
- g1: Flávio Bolsonaro leaves for the United States
- BBC News Brasil: why Israel downgraded relations
- Folha de S.Paulo: Israel’s consul refused in São Paulo
- AFP Factual: Lula’s UN speech
- World Jewish Congress: the Jewish community of Brazil
- CONIB: board of directors
- Ynet: aliyah figures for the past Hebrew year
- Israel.com: aliyah from Brazil (Aliyah Ministry data)
- BBC News Brasil: the dollar and markets after Lula’s win
- AFP: Lula’s re-election revives Brazil-US tensions